Strategies and Risks

By the time we live the future it is already the past.

 

But business requires planning, and planning needs the combination of knowing where we are, of clear targets, and of understanding the factors which may influence the route

 

 

Strategies and Risks

 

 

"No plan survives contact with the enemy" is the dictum attributed to Field Marshal Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke, the 19th century Prussian strategist and military innovator. His own phrasing was more nuanced: "No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy's main strength." 

 

Von Moltke also said: "Strategy is a system of expedients," and in planning with its clients IBS starts out by separating the defined, the definable and what cannot be defined:

  • Where will international fuel prices go?  A critical factor on which it cooperates with IHS Cera, a market leader in this area.
  • Will Turkey’s rapid growth – and its volatility – continue? Will the strains of this year’s elections affect the long term and how will EU membership play out?
  • How will the search for “national” solutions to the country’s energy needs shape the future?
  • What driver will the environment play? 
  • Can Turkey ensure the natural gas it needs?  Can BOTAS deliver it? At what price? With what structures and role for BOTAS?
  • Is power liberalization sure? How will competition in electricity markets evolve?

 

The questions are clear. The answers require not just forecasts – with all their masking of uncertainties – but scenarios. You need to recognize the uncertainties, to have a picture of the future with its logic and risks clearly explained. And then to understand the flexibility and response required to optimise your planning.
 
 
Which is where we can support you.