IBS Energy Models

In the course of the 300 energy projects that IBS has carried out, it has developed a range of proprietary modelling tools to serve its clients. These include:

Power Pricing

• The IBS Hourly Power Dispatch Model is an equilibrium dispatch model which establishes the wholesale balancing price in the market for each hour of each day to 2050, based on economic merit, but taking also into account contractual, technical and fuel availability constraints. It allows precise calculation of the potential gross revenue of each generating unit in the market, its generation, and its fuel consumption.

1. The model was developed in co-operation with IHS Cera. It is continually reviewed, updated and calibrated for market specific inputs. The status of new power projects and fuel and power price data are regularly collected.
2. With this model, IBS has supported finance institutions and investors in modeling the future of 25 GW of potential power projects.

 

Financial Modelling

• IBS has financial models for renewable and thermal plants, with detailed operating expenses, capital expenditure, cash flow analysis, profit statements and future balance sheets. These models allow full financial evaluation of potential investments.

For further details, please contact Feza Sanli.

Natural Gas Demand

• An integrated model for forecasting natural gas demand to 2050.

1. For power, this draws on the IBS Hourly Power Despatch Model.
2. For residential and commercial demand, IBS has developed a residential demand model for natural gas usage province by province. This is sensitive to temperature variations in the major cities and by province, allowing for new licenses and network development, economic development, population growth, changes in household size etc.
3. For industry, IBS has a separate model, calibrated for past consumption and allowing for growth of penetration of the network, of industrial output and of energy efficiency.

Natural Gas Pricing

• Separate models for:

1. Border prices of gas to Turkey
2. The future of BOTAS margins and of delivered price of gas to independent power plants

For further details, please contact David Tonge.