Forecasting the Future

Each year, Turkey needs $6-8 billion investment in new power plants and transmission capacity. And each year, the number of mergers and acquisitions is growing.

With the state selling 16 GW of generating assets and 5 GW of Build-Operate plants going merchant in 2019, the private sector share of generation exceeds three-quarters of sales. These changes have underpinned a liberalisation of market practices.

IBS specialises in helping international and local companies understand these fast-moving changes and the opportunities they create It offers:

• Detailed advice on regulatory issues and scenario development
• Modelling of future power prices and spark spreads, using the IBS Hourly Power Dispatch Model
• Full integration of power and gas consultancy
• Financial modelling to show rates of return, future balance sheets etc.

In the past seven years, it has assisted the development of over 25 GW of investments.  It works both for developers and their financiers, with its findings used by international banks and financial institutions as well as Turkish commercial and development banks.

A particular strength of IBS is its insight into Turkey’s gas market. The country no longer faces shortages of gas and problems in handling winter peaks, but BOTAŞ’s predominance creates challenges for would-be suppliers of pipeline gas and LNG. How do these affect new entrants and what mitigation measures are possible?  What gas purchase strategies can minimize risk?

Drawing on its proprietary gas models, IBS:

• Assists gas suppliers,
• Supports potential new entrants on their portfolio strategy,
• Assists investors interested in distribution assets to determine the value of these assets, with due diligence on market growth, engineering issues, and healty, safety and environment (HSE),
• Helps major gas users, in particular power producers, to appraise their security of supply, the optimal sourcing of gas, and the prices they will have to pay as BOTAS’s cross-subsidies come under pressure.
• Acts as expert witness in price disputes.

Gas is normally the price-setting technology in the power market, meaning its future pricing is critical. Long collecting and analysing the specialist data required, IBS is the market leader in strategy development in this field.

For further details, please contact David Tonge.