IBS Gas Probe, Turkey

Turkey - Thirsty amidst a sea of gas

 

Gas demand in Turkey has been growing fast. A growing distribution grid, investment in new gas-fired plants and economic growth – all these have been stressing Turkey’s transmission system.  

 

They also mean the country needs new gas supplies – and, as has long been clear, less dependence on supplies received via Ukraine. Now this has changed. Why might Turkey muddle through with only its present suppliers?

 

Turkey is surrounded by gas-rich countries to its east and south. But when will the Kurdish Region of Iraq and Azerbaijan be able to export vliumes to it?  Will Algeria continue to ship LNG? And what could be the rlie of Iran, Israel and Cyprus?. Indeed, will it have sufficient gas to meet demand this hungry decade?

 

The complexity is enhanced by the subsidies which BOTAS and Gazprom Export provide. What will be the future rlie of BOTAS and how will liberalization advance now that the private sector has become a significant player? And how will all this affect the pricing of gas to power plants?

 

Turkey - Thirsty amidst a sea of gas is one of the IBS Probes prepared for our clients. The table of contents of this report, to be released in October 2014, is:

 

  • LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE
  • GAS DEMAND SURGES ON
  1. Economic growth today and tomorrow
  2. Gas consumption in the power sector rising – but less
  3. Industrial demand a bedrock
  4. Heating and weather-related swings
  • FILLING TURKEY’S SUPPLY GAP
  1. LNG - extending the Algerian contract 
  2. What and when does Azerbaijan offer 
  3. Iraq and the East Mediterranean – can the dreams become reality
  4. Can Turkey rely on spot LNG markets to manage peaks and mitigate the shortage of pipeline gas
  • TRANSMISSION WITHIN TURKEY - HOW MUCH OF A CONSTRAINT
  • LIBERALIZATION AND PRICING
  1. Is liberalization possible this decade
  2. What future for BOTAS subsidies and cross-subsidies
  3. What timing for a liquid gas market

 

To discuss receipt of this IBS Probe, please contact Ceren Uzdil.