Taking Water Seriously
It has been a good spring for the 4.6 million people of Ankara. The rains in the first six weeks of the year filled the capital’s seven dams with 136 million cubic metres of water, the equivalent of five months’ consumption. Further rains have caused memories to recede of the spectre of drought that stalked only two years ago. That May, reservoir levels were down to a mere 10% of their full capacity. The introduction of a series of emergency measures helped the city to muddle through until March 2008 and the connection of Ankara to the Kesikköprü Dam on the Kizilirmak River 128 kilometres away. This was a measure originally planned for the 2020s, but it has given Ankara the same respite from anxiety that Istanbul has also been living.
In March this year, Istanbul’s dams were 90% full, over twice the 38% level of a year earlier. The water they contained, 718 million cubic metres, was equivalent to 13 months’ consumption, meaning that it could host March’s 5th World Water Forum without qualms. And the city, in 2000 connected to the rivers of the Istranca mountains on the Bulgarian border, is now also linked to the Melen River, 182 kilometres to its west. Phase 1 of the $1.2 billion Melen project was completed in October 2007 and brings 270 million cubic metres per year of water to the city. Phases 2 and 3 will bring this figure to 1,200 million, and allow Istanbul to meet its needs to 2040. The $1 billion plus annual budget of the city’s Iski has finally borne fruit.
By contrast, Turkey’s third city, Izmir, continues to cause worries. It has also been hit by two years of poor rain fall, and has less underlying resources. Its long-term planning involves using reverse osmosis or nano filtration to convert sea water to drinking water. The strains on these cities are all symptomatic of the end of Turkey’s transitional status as a water-rich country. In the past, it used to have more than 4,000 cubic metres of water per inhabitant per year. Today, that figure is down to 1,550 and by 2030 it is expected to have fallen to the 1,120 level, close to the 1,000 usually considered to indicate a state of water deficiency.
Rising Temperatures
Most of the reason for this fall is the quadrupling of the country’s population since 1945. Long-term data also shows some signs of climate change. There has not been an overall decline in rain fall: over the past 60 years, a slight decline in the Mediterranean area is offset by an increase in the Black Sea. A 2008 study carried out by officials in the State Meteorology Office does, however, show an increase in average temperature, with the average in the 2000s being around 0.5º C above the average for the 1990s. The difference is particularly marked where the summers are concerned, with summer minima recently averaging around 1.5º C above the average for the 1990s.
A late entry to Kyoto
It was only in July 2008 that the government agreed that Turkey should accede to the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is now preparing to sign this.
The UNFCCC entered into force in March 1994 and aims at limiting the adverse effects of greenhouse gases on the climate. Because it was believed that the UNFCCC was inadequate, the supplementary Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997 and came into force in 2005. It is this Protocol which sets 2012 targets for reducing emissions and which mechanisms to encourage investment in renewable energy. The Clean Development Mechanism, for example, can lead to additional revenues for those generating electricity from renewable sources such as hydro or wind. The protocol also launched the concept of international emission trading, with the EU’s Emission Trading Scheme.
The Kyoto Protocol requires industrialized countries to control their greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012. As of today, 176 countries have acceded to the protocol. In March 2009, Dr Veysel Eroglu, Minister of Environment and Forestry, said that Turkey has committed to achieve that as well. Turkey plans to take part in the negotiations on the future of Kyoto to be held in Denmark in November and December 2009.
There has been limited private sector involvement in the sector.
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In Izmit, Thames Water has been involved in a “Build Operate and Transfer “ scheme involving a dam and reservoir, raw water transfer mains, water treatment plant and treated water transmission mains to service reservoirs. The contract has led to continued disputes with the municipality over Thames’s charges.
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In Antalya, water and waste water management was awarded to Lyonnaise des Eaux but takenn back by the municipality after the first five-year review.
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The Cesme-Alacati (Izmir) Water Supply & Wastewater contract was awarded to Vivendi (Veolia) in 2003.
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The Istanbul Water and Wastewater Administration (ISKI) has contracted out responsibility for operating a new wastewater treatment plant to a local company for 3 years with an option to extend by 2 years.
However, the clear leader in the sector is the DSI. Since its establishment in 1954, DSİ has made investments of $38 billion. It estimates it has ensured that 62% of the irrigable area of Turkey receives water, that 35% of the hydro-electric power potential of the country is developed, and that 31% of the domestic and industrial requirements of the country are met. This is an impressive record, but there is another side to the coin, namely its apparent lack of appreciation of the environmental impact of its projects.
Export dreams
The Peace Pipeline Project was initiated in 1986 by the then Prime Minister Turgut Özal. The project would transport water from the Ceyhan and Seyhan rivers, both of which discharge into the Mediterranean Sea in the Province of Antalya via two pipelines to Jordan and Saudi Arabia, serving also Israel. The project never took off because Arab countries were reluctant to provide Israel with water while Israel was not enthusiastic about its water supply running through Syria.
In the 1990s, DSI spent $124 million to try and produce 500,000 cubic metres per day of water from the Manavgat River east of Antalya for sea transportation via underwater pipeline or sea terminal. Negotiations were mainly with Israel, but led nowhere.The project was again criticised by the Arabmedia because Turkey would deliver water to Israel, even though it had not been designed for Israel’s water needs alone. Now the country has revived the idea of exports with a multi-corridor project which would connect Israel and Turkey with natural gas, water and crude oil pipelines and via optic fibre.
Dr Guven Eken, head of the Doga Dernegi, says that the policies followed by the DSI have led to the drying up of 14,000 square kilometers of lakes, an area the size of the Sea of Marmara. The lake next to the cedar forests of Elmali has disappeared, the Salt Lake dried up, and that at Burdur halved its size. “These are alleged to be the result of global warming, but in this time period there has been no reduction in rain. The lakes are drying because of excessive use of underground and surface waters for agriculture,” says Dr Eken. His organization argues that neither forest fires or desertification are causing as much problem as mistaken water policies, while he himself says that DSI still fails to obtain the necessary environmental impact reports for its projects.
In the 1990s, I asked the DSI what they planned to do about the environmental issues around the 1,200 MW Ilisu hydroelectric project which would bury the mediaeval village of Hasankeyf, and they said they did not consider these important. In 2009, European credit agencies have still not been able to persuade DSI to take the issues seriously, and continue to delay credit for the project.
The DSI itself admits that its past irrigation policies, while requiring a lower investment per hectare, represent an inefficient use of water. No less than 86% of its current irrigation network uses open canals or raised concrete prefabricated flumes. Only 14% involve use of pipelines. Its new plans would raise the share of pipelines to 55% and slash the share of water distributed through relatively wasteful canals or flumes. In its communications to the 5th World Water Forum, it says that old schemes are being rehabilitated. It also emphasizes the need to develop farm efficiency through land consolidation, leveling, drainage and teaching farmers crop-soil-water management. It also underlines the importance of drip irrigation which uses only 40% of the water of traditional ‘wild’ irrigation.
To date, the largest irrigation schemes are those in the Southeastern Anatolian Project (the Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi - GAP) an integrated development project which aims at the socio-economic development of the region through irrigation and energy investments in the Tigris-Euphrates basin. The project, one of the biggest investments by Turkey, foresees construction of 22 dams and 19 Hydroelectric Power Plants (HEPPs) with an installed capacity of 7,490 MW and the irrigation of 18,000 square kilometres of land. To date, 75% of the hydroelectric energy projects have been realized as has 26% of the irrigation.
The biggest project is the irrigation of the Şanlıurfa-Harran Plain of 1,400 square kilometers. This has led to major investments by local and foreign businessmen and to a jump in production of crops such as cotton and vegetables. However, profligate use of water has also led to the accumulation of mineral salts which are beginning to reduce yields.
All this gives the Ministry of Environment a wide range of issues to follow. The current Minister, Dr Eroglu, was twice Director General of DSI. Which both means that he is well placed to understand the issues – and that organizations like Doga may need to continue to look over his shoulder.
David Tonge is Managing Director of IBS Research & Consultancy, which assists energy and other companies build their business in Turkey and Central Asia. (www.ibsresearch.com)