A year of elections – and prospects for lower growth

Turkey’s winter has been corrosive and divisive. The municipal elections were a success for Prime Minister Erdogan and may encourage him to run for the Presidency in August. To date, the markets have shrugged off allegations which would have toppled a lesser figure. But forecasts for growth in GDP in 2014 are being cut back.

Recent growth has only been achieved at the expense of an increase in the current account deficit to unsustainable levels. In this paper, we explore whether long-term forecasts for economic growth need re-appraising – and with them forecasts for growth in electricity and natural gas demand.

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